Cowlic Weather - Special Cases

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STEERING WINDS AROUND 15 MPH PUSHING MANY OF
THEM WEST INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MID EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THIS
EVENING...AND WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MAIN RISK FROM THE STORMS
TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED
RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...AND MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY HAS TRAVELED GENERALLY UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
MEANS THAT MUCH OF HER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DID NOT GET WRUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO. THUS THE MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA A LITTLE SOONER...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. IN REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...DAY OR
NIGHT...AND CAN PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES WELL OVER AN INCH PER HOUR.
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MAY RECEIVE
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BECAUSE THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED...THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. THE
EXACT DETAILS ON WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL IS NOT
CERTAIN YET...SO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.